Roto Baseball Guru

With the MLB trade deadline coming up, there has already been quite a bit of action that has had fantasy value implications.  There has been some sure winners, such as C.C. Sabathia going to Milwaukee and showing that not only is he a lights out pitcher, he can swing the bat as well!  Joe Blanton’s arrival in Philadelphia has been less than spectacular thus far, but then again he’s also in the midst of his worst season in his career, so the Phillies really traded for potential here than immediate results.  In the middle is probably Rich Harden, who has been lights out thus far but have yet to earn a win in the Cubs uniform.  That’s due in large part to the Cubs being 3-7 in the past 10, than anything that Harden has done. 

So what do these trades mean to your fantasy baseball team as you get ready for the stretch run of your office pool or fantasy baseball league?  Well there are a few things to keep in mind.  In general, if it is a pitcher that you are looking at, if he goes from a loser to a winner (i.e. Sabathia going from the basement dweller Indians to the Central challenging Brewers) you’ve probably lucked out on a few more wins.  As well, in general when a pitcher is traded from the hard hitting American league team to a National league team, where after every 8 batters you get a free out, that generally also gives a boost to their pitching stats.  Finally, it’s the whole mentality of playing for a winner as opposed to going through the motions.  If you are on a team that is contending, and the adrenaline is high, the atmosphere is positive and crowds are into the game, then you as a player will more likely be psyched up and perform better.  You’re in an atmosphere that is condusive to you bringing your best.  That maybe the largest intangible of it all, which is why in general having a key fantasy player traded from a loser to a contender can generally be a godsend for the player’s production and on a more selfish note, your own fantasy team.

There are exceptions of course, and situations where the player is being traded to a team where he will take a lesser role will deflate the fantasy value of that player.  Take John Rauch for example.  The recent trade that sent him from the Washington Nationals, where he was the closer, to the Arizona Diamondbacks where he will most likely be the setup man vying for the closer position, may have been great for him but was a nightmare for his fantasy owners.  This is best displayed by the number of drops of Rauch in the Yahoo fantasy leagues, after the trade was announced.

Now, with all that being said, let’s take a look at some of the bigger names that are still on the block from a trade perspective:

A.J. Burnett, SP - Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has been the model for inconsistency and his 11-8 record and 4.73 ERA is a tribute to that.  However, there is no doubt that he has electric stuff (leads the AL with 139 Ks) and when he’s on, there’s few that can match up to him in sheer talent and pitching prowess.  With the Jays management already looking at next season, it doesn’t take a psychic to foresee that his days are numbered.  I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that he’s going to the much hated Yankees.  With the recent charge back to the AL East pennant race, the Yankees are looking for some starting pitching to sure up their staff, especially with Chien-Ming Wang basically out for the season.

Manny Ramirez, OF - Boston Red Sox

On initial glance, you may think that I am crazy to be talking about the Red Sox trading Manny in the middle of a pennant race, but hear me out!  Manny has been back to being … well “Manny” and the Red Sox front office is fed up with it.  With Manny basically sitting himself out of the arguably the most important game of the season with the Yankees, insiders have indicated that management has had enough with his shenanigans.  Love him or hate him, Manny is a tremendous talent when he chooses to play, but there are very few teams that will be willing to take on his contract and sideshow as well.  That list that will are: the New York Mets and possibly the LA Angels.  The Mets are always looking for another big name, and the Angels are desparately in need of a power bat.  If Manny does get traded to either team, you heard it here first!

Jason Bay, OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

The good Canadian kid that has been a beacon of light in an otherwise sorry franchise maybe on the move soon.  There are a few factors that are contributing to this rumour.  The first and most obvious is that the Pirates are nowhere near contention and have already started selling assets in the form of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the New York Yankees.  The Pirates are also considered a small-market team, and with Bay up for free agency after the 2009, they may want to consider trading him to get some good quality prospects and young players back before he walks off and the team gets nothing in return.  Rumours have it that the New York Mets are in serious discussions with the Pirates for Bay’s services.  My take: I believe the Angels are talking to the Pirates about Bay as well, and the reasoning behind that is the same reason they would want Ramirez.  Bay would be a cheaper and less risky option for the Angels.  Also, don’t discount the LA Dodgers from the list as well.  With Andrew Jones all but a bust this year and the Dodgers hot and heavy in contention in the NL West, Bay would fill the power outage that they need in LA to try to overtake the Diamondbacks.

Let’s see how many of these predictions I get right!

For more fantasy baseball info: www.rotobaseballguru.com

One of the more exciting aspects of managing a fantasy sports team is the thrill of pulling off the blockbuster trade.  Perhaps it’s the power of being the GM and having the authority to execute a trade, because we all know how often we’ve wanted to trade that poor performer on our favourite sports team when we get frustrated with watching that player.  That and the feeling you get when you fleece an opposing GM in a trade, does have a certain level of satisfaction.

In all trades, there are usually winners and losers.  Ever so often you maybe able to make a trade that is mutually beneficial, but more often than not, either through unforseen injuries or player flops, one side tends to come out on top.  I’ll like to call these our trade bloopers, and I’m sure we’ve all had our share of them.  In fact, at the start of my fantasy baseball season this year, I made what I would call one of my worse trades ever.  It was a month into the season, and I had (what I thought) a glut of quality starting pitching: Dan Haren, Scott Kazmir, Brad Penny, Jered Weaver, Javier Vazquez, and Joe Blanton.  Not a shabby group.  I needed another closer, so I started negotiations with a rival GM that had plenty.  After much back and forth, we came up with the following deal:

Javier Vazquez + Dan Uggla <==> Chad Cordero + Yunel Escobar

Uggla was having another slow start, batting under .200 with only a couple of home runs.  I believe it was after a 0/5 night with no walks when I had enough and decided to “upgrade” the position with the young star from Atlanta, Yunel Escobar.  I think that Escobar also hit a home run that night which was the final push I needed to make the decision.  The other GM already had Utley, so really Uggla for Escobar was a bit of a throw in.

Almost immediately after the trade, or so it always seems, Uggla caught fire.  And not a typical week long hot streak, this guy was an inferno, burning up all competition at the 2B position!  His numbers for the rest of April, all of May and even into early June were better than Utley, and rivaled all top fantasy production at any position … and that says a lot!  Obviously, my stomach turned as I began to realize how bad of a trade I just made.  To add insult to injury, soon after I got Cordero, he blew out his arm and went straight to the DL, and I haven’t seen him since.  The latest news is that he’s gone for the season.  I don’t think he even recorded me a single save!

So that’s that.  Some say it’s therapeutic to talk about your rage, so I’m trying to help myself get over it by blogging about it.   Needless to say, I now think twice before considering another trade from that GM.  It wasn’t his fault really, since I was the one that made the final offer of the players mentioned above.  But hey, someones got to take the blame!  So I’m sure I’m not the only one with a forgettable trade story.  Let’s hear yours and see how it stacks up.  Misery loves company after all!

Research your players before making trades.  Get more fantasy data here: www.rotobaseballguru.com