Roto Baseball Guru

It’s been awhile since the Toronto Blue Jays have played meaningful September baseball, and this year will be no different.  However, as we are in the midst of a 7 game winning streak (the longest in over 4 years) and I just witnessed another thrilling last at-bat grand slam come from behind victory over the AL East leading Tampa Bay Rays - I can say that at least it’s enjoyable to watch.  I can also soak in the solace that with this win, we are also dead even with the New York Yankees at 75-66, still a good 10.5 games back from Tampa Bay.

The Jays seem to relish in playing spoilers in September.  Although I don’t have the stats in front of me, I do recall that September is usually a good performing month for the Jays, and so far with a 5-0 record to start September, the Jays look to continue that trend.  But the bigger question is, does this all really matter?  Even with all of the great recent play, the Jays are once again not playing any meaningful games in September.  Although they may mathematically be still in it, the reality is that the Jays management is getting a better feel of what they have and what the future will hold.  From what I have seen so far, the future should be bright.

With a 1-2-3 of Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Adam Lind in the outfield, the Jays will have a young and solid group, that if playing up to their potential, will rival any other outfield tandem in the AL East.  They have shown this year that they have the top pitching staff, but that will take a bit of a hit next year with the wide known speculation that A.J. Burnett will opt out of his contract and walk away for greener pastures.  I have also been quite impressed by 20 year old September call-up, Travis Snider, who is eating up Major League pitching like he was back in Triple A Syracuse.  Finally, there’s the Cito Gaston factor.  Although there were many critics of his re-hiring back in June, the results that he has brought to the Jays since he replaced John Gibbons cannot be ignored.

Gaston and his staff has slowly but surely began to bring the bats around and given them confidence to deliver in the clutch, the critical weakness of team all year.  Although he’s not magician, it’s been night and day at times the way the Jays hitters approach their at-bats and there has been a gradual improvement till this point.  All of the recent results, plus the whole aura of being the only manager to bring Toronto a championship in baseball - has earned Gaston an extension to his contract until next year.

As a Jays fan, I maybe disappointed with another September of meaningless baseball, but with Gaston in charge, the players that we have locked up, and ultimately the progress that the team has made in the past few months … I am shockingly optimistic of what we can do next year.  But until then, at least I know there will be entertaining September baseball to watch!

Update: September 9th, 2008

The Jays have run their winning streak to a whopping 10 games in a row!  This is their longest streak since the franchise record 11 game win streak back in 1998 between the strech of Aug. 27-Sept. 7.  Although it will still take a miracle for the Jays to make it into the playoffs, this is a fun ride that we should all enjoy while it lasts.  Let’s go Blue Jays!

With the MLB trade deadline coming up, there has already been quite a bit of action that has had fantasy value implications.  There has been some sure winners, such as C.C. Sabathia going to Milwaukee and showing that not only is he a lights out pitcher, he can swing the bat as well!  Joe Blanton’s arrival in Philadelphia has been less than spectacular thus far, but then again he’s also in the midst of his worst season in his career, so the Phillies really traded for potential here than immediate results.  In the middle is probably Rich Harden, who has been lights out thus far but have yet to earn a win in the Cubs uniform.  That’s due in large part to the Cubs being 3-7 in the past 10, than anything that Harden has done. 

So what do these trades mean to your fantasy baseball team as you get ready for the stretch run of your office pool or fantasy baseball league?  Well there are a few things to keep in mind.  In general, if it is a pitcher that you are looking at, if he goes from a loser to a winner (i.e. Sabathia going from the basement dweller Indians to the Central challenging Brewers) you’ve probably lucked out on a few more wins.  As well, in general when a pitcher is traded from the hard hitting American league team to a National league team, where after every 8 batters you get a free out, that generally also gives a boost to their pitching stats.  Finally, it’s the whole mentality of playing for a winner as opposed to going through the motions.  If you are on a team that is contending, and the adrenaline is high, the atmosphere is positive and crowds are into the game, then you as a player will more likely be psyched up and perform better.  You’re in an atmosphere that is condusive to you bringing your best.  That maybe the largest intangible of it all, which is why in general having a key fantasy player traded from a loser to a contender can generally be a godsend for the player’s production and on a more selfish note, your own fantasy team.

There are exceptions of course, and situations where the player is being traded to a team where he will take a lesser role will deflate the fantasy value of that player.  Take John Rauch for example.  The recent trade that sent him from the Washington Nationals, where he was the closer, to the Arizona Diamondbacks where he will most likely be the setup man vying for the closer position, may have been great for him but was a nightmare for his fantasy owners.  This is best displayed by the number of drops of Rauch in the Yahoo fantasy leagues, after the trade was announced.

Now, with all that being said, let’s take a look at some of the bigger names that are still on the block from a trade perspective:

A.J. Burnett, SP - Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has been the model for inconsistency and his 11-8 record and 4.73 ERA is a tribute to that.  However, there is no doubt that he has electric stuff (leads the AL with 139 Ks) and when he’s on, there’s few that can match up to him in sheer talent and pitching prowess.  With the Jays management already looking at next season, it doesn’t take a psychic to foresee that his days are numbered.  I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that he’s going to the much hated Yankees.  With the recent charge back to the AL East pennant race, the Yankees are looking for some starting pitching to sure up their staff, especially with Chien-Ming Wang basically out for the season.

Manny Ramirez, OF - Boston Red Sox

On initial glance, you may think that I am crazy to be talking about the Red Sox trading Manny in the middle of a pennant race, but hear me out!  Manny has been back to being … well “Manny” and the Red Sox front office is fed up with it.  With Manny basically sitting himself out of the arguably the most important game of the season with the Yankees, insiders have indicated that management has had enough with his shenanigans.  Love him or hate him, Manny is a tremendous talent when he chooses to play, but there are very few teams that will be willing to take on his contract and sideshow as well.  That list that will are: the New York Mets and possibly the LA Angels.  The Mets are always looking for another big name, and the Angels are desparately in need of a power bat.  If Manny does get traded to either team, you heard it here first!

Jason Bay, OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

The good Canadian kid that has been a beacon of light in an otherwise sorry franchise maybe on the move soon.  There are a few factors that are contributing to this rumour.  The first and most obvious is that the Pirates are nowhere near contention and have already started selling assets in the form of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the New York Yankees.  The Pirates are also considered a small-market team, and with Bay up for free agency after the 2009, they may want to consider trading him to get some good quality prospects and young players back before he walks off and the team gets nothing in return.  Rumours have it that the New York Mets are in serious discussions with the Pirates for Bay’s services.  My take: I believe the Angels are talking to the Pirates about Bay as well, and the reasoning behind that is the same reason they would want Ramirez.  Bay would be a cheaper and less risky option for the Angels.  Also, don’t discount the LA Dodgers from the list as well.  With Andrew Jones all but a bust this year and the Dodgers hot and heavy in contention in the NL West, Bay would fill the power outage that they need in LA to try to overtake the Diamondbacks.

Let’s see how many of these predictions I get right!

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