Roto Baseball Guru

As the Toronto Blues Jays kick off their final home stand today against the New York Yankees, they will be battling for the coveted 3rd place spot in the division.  This is a position that the Blue Jays have been quite familiar with since the turn of the century, but this is definitely new territory for the Evil Empire.

Nobody predicted the rise of the Tampa Bay Rays.  Soon after the All-Star break when injuries hit the Rays and they appeared to be free falling, most experts and pundits wrote them off.  But as to thumb their noses to the so called experts, the Rays quickly rebounded and here in the last week of the season, are still in first place - still holding off the World Champions Boston Red Sox.  They have shown the poise and perseverance required to win, and this season maybe the breakout party for the Rays that is long overdue.

So as the Jays and Yankees battle for third place, there is little consolation for the Yankee ball club or fans to finish third.  Anything other than a World Championship is considered a failure - especially when sporting the highest payroll in baseball.  If the Jays do win the series and the Yankees end up in 4th place, it may as well mark the end of this Yankee dynasty’s reign.  The Jays, Rays and Red Sox have much younger teams that have shown they are on the upswing.  The Yankees, although still sporting perennial All-Stars, are past their prime and will probably need to go into rebuilding mode in the next few years to get back on track.  As the last game at the historic Yankee Stadium was played last Sunday, the event may also symbolically mark the end of this Yankee era.  It was fun while it lasted.

If you ask most people outside of Canada, what they think of Canadians, they’ll usually tell you that we are: polite, humble and giving society.  We’ll always be the first ones to say that we’re sorry, we do not usually boast or self-promote and we usually give credit to our competitors.  I am not saying that it is right or wrong, but just stating a more general observation that I have seen.  For these reasons, it was perhaps a bit out of character for Adam Van Koeverden, one of our brightest Olympic gold medal hopefuls in the 2008 Beijing games, when he made some recent comments regarding Michael Phelps.

After Phelps succeeded in his goal of winning 8 gold medals in these Olympic games, the media was hot and heavy in asking any and all athletes regarding their thoughts on this incredible feat.  When the question was posed to Van Koeverden, he gave the standard praise and pleasantries to Phelps, but also added a slight caveat to his response.  He stated that although Phelp’s feat was incredible, swimming is a sport where you could basically excel in one technique or discipline, and have multiple opportunities to win a medal.  For example, if you were a brilliant short to middle distance freestyler, you have to opportunities to win 6 medals of basically the same discipline: 50m, 100m, 200m, 4×100m Freestyle, 4×100 IM, 4×200 IM.  There really isn’t any other sport that rewards an athlete so many opportunities to basically excel at the same thing.  Furthermore, Van Koeverden indicated that if his sport of kayaking had additional events of varying distances i.e. 1500m, 2000m, 2500m, 4×500m relay, etc, he would be in the running for 5 to 6 medals as well.  Given Van Koeverden’s recent dominance of the sport and his world record time in his qualifying heat, I have no qualms with the little trashing talk and confidence that Van Koeverden exuberated.  In fact, as Canadians I feel that we are too “polite” at times and don’t necessarily have that killer instinct necessarily to succeed in competition and we are all too often in the “just happy to be here” mentality when it comes to the Olympics.  Sure that maybe the safe thing to say, but in all honesty athletes live and breathe to compete and along with that, to win.  So the rhetoric behind not wanting or caring about winning is really a farce.  So let’s call a spade a spade and I would step up and applaud all competitors that are willing to take the beats when they talk the talk but don’t walk the walk.

Perhaps it was only karma then, that after Van Koeverden made his not-so Canadian comments, he went out and had probably his worst race of the past four years, coming 2nd last (8th out of 9 competitors) in the finals of the K-1 1000m event, where he was heavily favoured to win gold.  He had no explanation for his disappointing performance, other than stating that he just didn’t have it that day and was clearly devastated by the results.

Canadians don’t trash talk, because when they do, they usually choke when it comes time to back it up.  I have no explanation for it, other than the theory that there are larger powers at play here.  Regardless of the conspiracy theory though, the story did have a luke-warm ending, as Van Koeverden bounced back from his dismal performance and earned a silver medal in the K-1 500m, another event that he was favoured to win gold in and most recently set a world record in his qualifying heat. 

This was not the result that Van Koeverden, hoped, trained and competed for … however the result is still something that he, and Canada, can be proud of.  He made a good point during one of his closing interviews that in sport, there is never ever guarantees.  Just because you are picked to be the favourite, you still need to show up and compete at your best on that day, to meet the expectations that has been set on you.  Perhaps this is the truest statement that he made, and very typically Canadian.  Maybe if he did not make those statements regarding Phelps, things would have ended up differently.  You never know … karma can be a very powerful force!

Regardless of the disappointing results, Canada is still very proud of you Adam … and yes, that’s very Canadian for me to say that as well.

With the MLB trade deadline coming up, there has already been quite a bit of action that has had fantasy value implications.  There has been some sure winners, such as C.C. Sabathia going to Milwaukee and showing that not only is he a lights out pitcher, he can swing the bat as well!  Joe Blanton’s arrival in Philadelphia has been less than spectacular thus far, but then again he’s also in the midst of his worst season in his career, so the Phillies really traded for potential here than immediate results.  In the middle is probably Rich Harden, who has been lights out thus far but have yet to earn a win in the Cubs uniform.  That’s due in large part to the Cubs being 3-7 in the past 10, than anything that Harden has done. 

So what do these trades mean to your fantasy baseball team as you get ready for the stretch run of your office pool or fantasy baseball league?  Well there are a few things to keep in mind.  In general, if it is a pitcher that you are looking at, if he goes from a loser to a winner (i.e. Sabathia going from the basement dweller Indians to the Central challenging Brewers) you’ve probably lucked out on a few more wins.  As well, in general when a pitcher is traded from the hard hitting American league team to a National league team, where after every 8 batters you get a free out, that generally also gives a boost to their pitching stats.  Finally, it’s the whole mentality of playing for a winner as opposed to going through the motions.  If you are on a team that is contending, and the adrenaline is high, the atmosphere is positive and crowds are into the game, then you as a player will more likely be psyched up and perform better.  You’re in an atmosphere that is condusive to you bringing your best.  That maybe the largest intangible of it all, which is why in general having a key fantasy player traded from a loser to a contender can generally be a godsend for the player’s production and on a more selfish note, your own fantasy team.

There are exceptions of course, and situations where the player is being traded to a team where he will take a lesser role will deflate the fantasy value of that player.  Take John Rauch for example.  The recent trade that sent him from the Washington Nationals, where he was the closer, to the Arizona Diamondbacks where he will most likely be the setup man vying for the closer position, may have been great for him but was a nightmare for his fantasy owners.  This is best displayed by the number of drops of Rauch in the Yahoo fantasy leagues, after the trade was announced.

Now, with all that being said, let’s take a look at some of the bigger names that are still on the block from a trade perspective:

A.J. Burnett, SP - Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has been the model for inconsistency and his 11-8 record and 4.73 ERA is a tribute to that.  However, there is no doubt that he has electric stuff (leads the AL with 139 Ks) and when he’s on, there’s few that can match up to him in sheer talent and pitching prowess.  With the Jays management already looking at next season, it doesn’t take a psychic to foresee that his days are numbered.  I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that he’s going to the much hated Yankees.  With the recent charge back to the AL East pennant race, the Yankees are looking for some starting pitching to sure up their staff, especially with Chien-Ming Wang basically out for the season.

Manny Ramirez, OF - Boston Red Sox

On initial glance, you may think that I am crazy to be talking about the Red Sox trading Manny in the middle of a pennant race, but hear me out!  Manny has been back to being … well “Manny” and the Red Sox front office is fed up with it.  With Manny basically sitting himself out of the arguably the most important game of the season with the Yankees, insiders have indicated that management has had enough with his shenanigans.  Love him or hate him, Manny is a tremendous talent when he chooses to play, but there are very few teams that will be willing to take on his contract and sideshow as well.  That list that will are: the New York Mets and possibly the LA Angels.  The Mets are always looking for another big name, and the Angels are desparately in need of a power bat.  If Manny does get traded to either team, you heard it here first!

Jason Bay, OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

The good Canadian kid that has been a beacon of light in an otherwise sorry franchise maybe on the move soon.  There are a few factors that are contributing to this rumour.  The first and most obvious is that the Pirates are nowhere near contention and have already started selling assets in the form of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the New York Yankees.  The Pirates are also considered a small-market team, and with Bay up for free agency after the 2009, they may want to consider trading him to get some good quality prospects and young players back before he walks off and the team gets nothing in return.  Rumours have it that the New York Mets are in serious discussions with the Pirates for Bay’s services.  My take: I believe the Angels are talking to the Pirates about Bay as well, and the reasoning behind that is the same reason they would want Ramirez.  Bay would be a cheaper and less risky option for the Angels.  Also, don’t discount the LA Dodgers from the list as well.  With Andrew Jones all but a bust this year and the Dodgers hot and heavy in contention in the NL West, Bay would fill the power outage that they need in LA to try to overtake the Diamondbacks.

Let’s see how many of these predictions I get right!

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