Roto Baseball Guru

As the Toronto Blues Jays kick off their final home stand today against the New York Yankees, they will be battling for the coveted 3rd place spot in the division.  This is a position that the Blue Jays have been quite familiar with since the turn of the century, but this is definitely new territory for the Evil Empire.

Nobody predicted the rise of the Tampa Bay Rays.  Soon after the All-Star break when injuries hit the Rays and they appeared to be free falling, most experts and pundits wrote them off.  But as to thumb their noses to the so called experts, the Rays quickly rebounded and here in the last week of the season, are still in first place - still holding off the World Champions Boston Red Sox.  They have shown the poise and perseverance required to win, and this season maybe the breakout party for the Rays that is long overdue.

So as the Jays and Yankees battle for third place, there is little consolation for the Yankee ball club or fans to finish third.  Anything other than a World Championship is considered a failure - especially when sporting the highest payroll in baseball.  If the Jays do win the series and the Yankees end up in 4th place, it may as well mark the end of this Yankee dynasty’s reign.  The Jays, Rays and Red Sox have much younger teams that have shown they are on the upswing.  The Yankees, although still sporting perennial All-Stars, are past their prime and will probably need to go into rebuilding mode in the next few years to get back on track.  As the last game at the historic Yankee Stadium was played last Sunday, the event may also symbolically mark the end of this Yankee era.  It was fun while it lasted.

As the baseball season and subsequently the fantasy baseball season is coming to an end, this also marks the time for the start of the other sports leagues.  Football season has already started and hockey and basketball are just weeks away.  In fact, the draft date for the head-to-head hockey league that I am a part of is less than a week away.  This brings up a very good debate regarding drafting.  In most fantasy game providers there is an auto-draft option that are available to you.  For neophytes that are new to this arena, the auto-draft is a tool that will use tuned algorithms to pick the players for your team based on statistics and your positional needs.

Now many fantasy generals will frown and even mock the use of the auto-draft tool, as it takes away the whole skills and research of building your team, not to mention putting your own personal touch.  The draft is arguably the single most important managerial task that you need to perform as the general manager of your fantasy team, any screw-up here can severely hamper your team’s performance for the rest of the season.  All of these are great points, and are points that I also subscribe to.  However, it is also for these reasons that sometimes the auto-draft option just makes sense.  It all comes down to two main factors: time and emotion.

Time - For the hard-core fantasy sports fanatic, this is not an issue - they will spend the hours required to dig through stats, read up on prospects and sleepers, and have a list of possible hidden gems come draft day.  However, for the rest of us, this isn’t an option.  As much as we do love fantasy sports, the time and effort to get a substantial return for our research is just not plausible.  Given that, instead of making informed selections based on knowledge and stats, we use our gut and the “celebrity factor” such as how well we know or heard of the player.

Emotion - In any type of investment when emotion is put into the mix, it can really screw up your decision-making and ultimately your returns.  This is no different when drafting players for your fantasy team.  Your players or picks are your investments and when made soundly with the proper research and evaluation, you can generally expect decent returns.  However, if all of your picks were based on emotion - how well known the player is, does he play for your favorite team, etc, you will most likely dread the returns you’ll see at the end of the season.

The beauty of the auto-draft is that it takes these two elements out of the equation.  Most auto-drafts are quite sophisticated and along with applying the algorithms of the best player based on stats and need, you can also add your own rankings and player preferences to the mix.  In my opinion, this combination gives you the ultimate tool to succeed when draft day comes.  On a personal level, I have used the auto-draft option for my past couple of leagues and have been satisfied with the results.  Where was the extra time that I saved from all the hours doing research used?  Watching the game, of course.  Time well spent, indeed.

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It’s been awhile since the Toronto Blue Jays have played meaningful September baseball, and this year will be no different.  However, as we are in the midst of a 7 game winning streak (the longest in over 4 years) and I just witnessed another thrilling last at-bat grand slam come from behind victory over the AL East leading Tampa Bay Rays - I can say that at least it’s enjoyable to watch.  I can also soak in the solace that with this win, we are also dead even with the New York Yankees at 75-66, still a good 10.5 games back from Tampa Bay.

The Jays seem to relish in playing spoilers in September.  Although I don’t have the stats in front of me, I do recall that September is usually a good performing month for the Jays, and so far with a 5-0 record to start September, the Jays look to continue that trend.  But the bigger question is, does this all really matter?  Even with all of the great recent play, the Jays are once again not playing any meaningful games in September.  Although they may mathematically be still in it, the reality is that the Jays management is getting a better feel of what they have and what the future will hold.  From what I have seen so far, the future should be bright.

With a 1-2-3 of Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Adam Lind in the outfield, the Jays will have a young and solid group, that if playing up to their potential, will rival any other outfield tandem in the AL East.  They have shown this year that they have the top pitching staff, but that will take a bit of a hit next year with the wide known speculation that A.J. Burnett will opt out of his contract and walk away for greener pastures.  I have also been quite impressed by 20 year old September call-up, Travis Snider, who is eating up Major League pitching like he was back in Triple A Syracuse.  Finally, there’s the Cito Gaston factor.  Although there were many critics of his re-hiring back in June, the results that he has brought to the Jays since he replaced John Gibbons cannot be ignored.

Gaston and his staff has slowly but surely began to bring the bats around and given them confidence to deliver in the clutch, the critical weakness of team all year.  Although he’s not magician, it’s been night and day at times the way the Jays hitters approach their at-bats and there has been a gradual improvement till this point.  All of the recent results, plus the whole aura of being the only manager to bring Toronto a championship in baseball - has earned Gaston an extension to his contract until next year.

As a Jays fan, I maybe disappointed with another September of meaningless baseball, but with Gaston in charge, the players that we have locked up, and ultimately the progress that the team has made in the past few months … I am shockingly optimistic of what we can do next year.  But until then, at least I know there will be entertaining September baseball to watch!

Update: September 9th, 2008

The Jays have run their winning streak to a whopping 10 games in a row!  This is their longest streak since the franchise record 11 game win streak back in 1998 between the strech of Aug. 27-Sept. 7.  Although it will still take a miracle for the Jays to make it into the playoffs, this is a fun ride that we should all enjoy while it lasts.  Let’s go Blue Jays!