Roto Baseball Guru

Let me start off by saying that this piece is about something that I feel Americans are really good at.  Now before I get on to my rant, I just wanted to say that there are also many things that I feel American’s are not particularly good at.  Things such as designing good looking cars, making fast food healthy, electing intelligent leaders…well okay maybe that was just a shot at the current administration.

As a Canadian, I have the luxury of viewing American’s from a distance that isn’t too far nor too close.  I get all the major American channels such as NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, MTV, VH1, ESPN, etc. but at the same time I also have all the Canadian TV channels too.  This unique opportunity allows me to compare and contrast the different marketing styles used by American and Canadian networks to promote their programs and for this article sporting events.

American networks love to focus on the subplot within the main event, whether it’s an individual overcoming some great obstacle to achieve their goal or a larger than life sports figure trying to become the best of all time.  American networks have this style down to an art form.  While Canadian networks and in a large part the rest of the sporting world tend to focus on the actual events themselves.  For a casual sports fan looking to enjoy a sport they don’t know much about, they need something smaller to grasp, an individual player or thing to look for that isn’t too complicated.  Connoisseurs of the game already know what they are looking for, they might not even be cheering for a particular team or individual as long as it is entertaining that’s enough to satisfy them.  These students of the game can enjoy the purity of what’s happening before their eyes and appreciate the subtle nuances and minute details.  However, most bandwagon hoppers just want something that will entertain them for the duration of the event and focusing on one small aspect of the sport makes it a lot easier to follow.  Case in point, I knew that the Tour de France was happening around this time of the year.  It wasn’t until this Monday that I found out that the Tour was over and the winner was crowned this past weekend.  In previous years when Lance Armstrong was competing, I would actually get up early on weekends to catch the second half of the stages and watch for Lance in his customary yellow jersey amongst the sea of cyclists.  The reason why I followed the Tour back then was because I had someone to root for.  There were numerous stories about Lance Armstrong and what he had to do to overcome cancer to become arguably the best cyclist to ever live.  You felt like you knew him personally, you wanted to hear the commentators talk more about him because you wanted to know everything there was to know.  Same with Tiger Woods.  Every Sunday, you know all the casual golf fans tune in to watch the man in the red.  If he is in contention, you know he will do something spectacular, it’s almost a given.  Now that he is sidelined for the rest of the year, how many of these fair weather golf fans will still be tuning in to watch a bunch of middle aged men battle each other for a trophy named after a company nobody really cares about?  In American sports it’s all about promoting the human aspect, putting a face to the sport gives it more appeal.  The Olympics are starting in about two weeks, how many Canadian athletes do I know?  Definitely one, maybe two.  Besides Adam Van Koeverden the gold medal favorite in kayaking there really isn’t anyone who stands out.  How many American Olympians do I know?  A lot more.  Dara Torres the 41 year old swimmer who is still breaking records and damn hot for any age is someone who you want to root for.  Jeremy Wariner, the 400 meter sprinter, all you hear about now is how he fired his coach and is slower because of it.  Jeremy isn’t the once overwhelming favorite to win gold as another US sprinter has already beaten him twice this year.  Do you think I will be tuning in to see how this saga turns out?  You betcha!  Even on a team full of superstars, such as the Dream Team, all you really read or hear about are its two biggest stars, Kobe and Lebron.  Focus.  This is what American sports television does best.  Give the spectator something small to chew on so that anybody can tune in and feel like they are apart of the action.  This is why I love American sporting events and why I will most likely be watching the American broadcasts of the Olympic games while tuning into the Canadian channels whenever a Canadian is completing but only because I am Canadian.

So the weekly hot hitter stats are up on the main site, and while updating those stats I was pleasantly surprised to see the Blue Jays own Alex Rios at the top of the list.  Alex has been tearing it up since the all-star break, hitting more home runs (a total of four) in the past week than he did in the entire first half.  It’s a bit sad if you think about it, but it’s really part and parcel with the pathetic Jays offense this year.  Viewing from a glass half full perspective, it’s good to see Alex starting to pick things up … it’s long overdue.  However I’m not holding my breath that he’ll keep this going.  I’m still kicking J.P. Ricciardi for the fact that he didn’t trade Rios for the current leading NL Cy Young candidate, Tim Lincecum.  Hindsight is 20/20 but that would have been a sweet trade … you can never have enough quality pitching!

On another note, when I was reviewing the weekly top hitters from the past month to look for any trends, it became apparent to me how quickly a player rotates in and out of a hot streak on a weekly basis.  Over the past 4 weeks, only 2 players were able to make it to the Top Ten list more than once.  Can you guess who they were?

If you guessed the usual suspects such as: Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols or even Josh Hamilton, you would be incorrect.  No, instead of these fantasy household names the two players that have earned this prestigious distinction are:

Ryan Braun (Mil - 3B,OF) - Ranked #2, Week of July 20-26 and Ranked #8, Week of July 6-12
Matt Holliday (Col - OF) - Ranked #3, Week of July 20-26 and Ranked #1, Week of June 29-July 5

What does that tell you?  One thing is that picking up the hottest player of the week doesn’t necessarily equate to that same player staying hot for the next week.  More often than not, that player will fall out of the Top 10 the following week.  The other is that baseball is a long season, and any metric at a specific point in time is not enough to make a good fantasy player evaluation decision.  It’s really a good mix following the latest news, as well as the weekly stats that will help you find that next hot fantasy gem.

Remember that you can always get the weekly top hitter stats for the fantasy baseball source: www.rotobaseballguru.com

With the MLB trade deadline coming up, there has already been quite a bit of action that has had fantasy value implications.  There has been some sure winners, such as C.C. Sabathia going to Milwaukee and showing that not only is he a lights out pitcher, he can swing the bat as well!  Joe Blanton’s arrival in Philadelphia has been less than spectacular thus far, but then again he’s also in the midst of his worst season in his career, so the Phillies really traded for potential here than immediate results.  In the middle is probably Rich Harden, who has been lights out thus far but have yet to earn a win in the Cubs uniform.  That’s due in large part to the Cubs being 3-7 in the past 10, than anything that Harden has done. 

So what do these trades mean to your fantasy baseball team as you get ready for the stretch run of your office pool or fantasy baseball league?  Well there are a few things to keep in mind.  In general, if it is a pitcher that you are looking at, if he goes from a loser to a winner (i.e. Sabathia going from the basement dweller Indians to the Central challenging Brewers) you’ve probably lucked out on a few more wins.  As well, in general when a pitcher is traded from the hard hitting American league team to a National league team, where after every 8 batters you get a free out, that generally also gives a boost to their pitching stats.  Finally, it’s the whole mentality of playing for a winner as opposed to going through the motions.  If you are on a team that is contending, and the adrenaline is high, the atmosphere is positive and crowds are into the game, then you as a player will more likely be psyched up and perform better.  You’re in an atmosphere that is condusive to you bringing your best.  That maybe the largest intangible of it all, which is why in general having a key fantasy player traded from a loser to a contender can generally be a godsend for the player’s production and on a more selfish note, your own fantasy team.

There are exceptions of course, and situations where the player is being traded to a team where he will take a lesser role will deflate the fantasy value of that player.  Take John Rauch for example.  The recent trade that sent him from the Washington Nationals, where he was the closer, to the Arizona Diamondbacks where he will most likely be the setup man vying for the closer position, may have been great for him but was a nightmare for his fantasy owners.  This is best displayed by the number of drops of Rauch in the Yahoo fantasy leagues, after the trade was announced.

Now, with all that being said, let’s take a look at some of the bigger names that are still on the block from a trade perspective:

A.J. Burnett, SP - Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has been the model for inconsistency and his 11-8 record and 4.73 ERA is a tribute to that.  However, there is no doubt that he has electric stuff (leads the AL with 139 Ks) and when he’s on, there’s few that can match up to him in sheer talent and pitching prowess.  With the Jays management already looking at next season, it doesn’t take a psychic to foresee that his days are numbered.  I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that he’s going to the much hated Yankees.  With the recent charge back to the AL East pennant race, the Yankees are looking for some starting pitching to sure up their staff, especially with Chien-Ming Wang basically out for the season.

Manny Ramirez, OF - Boston Red Sox

On initial glance, you may think that I am crazy to be talking about the Red Sox trading Manny in the middle of a pennant race, but hear me out!  Manny has been back to being … well “Manny” and the Red Sox front office is fed up with it.  With Manny basically sitting himself out of the arguably the most important game of the season with the Yankees, insiders have indicated that management has had enough with his shenanigans.  Love him or hate him, Manny is a tremendous talent when he chooses to play, but there are very few teams that will be willing to take on his contract and sideshow as well.  That list that will are: the New York Mets and possibly the LA Angels.  The Mets are always looking for another big name, and the Angels are desparately in need of a power bat.  If Manny does get traded to either team, you heard it here first!

Jason Bay, OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

The good Canadian kid that has been a beacon of light in an otherwise sorry franchise maybe on the move soon.  There are a few factors that are contributing to this rumour.  The first and most obvious is that the Pirates are nowhere near contention and have already started selling assets in the form of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the New York Yankees.  The Pirates are also considered a small-market team, and with Bay up for free agency after the 2009, they may want to consider trading him to get some good quality prospects and young players back before he walks off and the team gets nothing in return.  Rumours have it that the New York Mets are in serious discussions with the Pirates for Bay’s services.  My take: I believe the Angels are talking to the Pirates about Bay as well, and the reasoning behind that is the same reason they would want Ramirez.  Bay would be a cheaper and less risky option for the Angels.  Also, don’t discount the LA Dodgers from the list as well.  With Andrew Jones all but a bust this year and the Dodgers hot and heavy in contention in the NL West, Bay would fill the power outage that they need in LA to try to overtake the Diamondbacks.

Let’s see how many of these predictions I get right!

For more fantasy baseball info: www.rotobaseballguru.com